Single-family home inventory trended higher into the fall of 2023, peaking in September. Inventory declined in October as sales increased and new listings declined. Typically, inventory peaks in July or August and declines through December or January. Even though inventory increased this year, it’s still historically low, moving higher primarily due to softening demand (fewer sales) caused by higher interest rates, normal seasonality, and an atypical increase in new listings in September. The number of new listings coming to market is a significant predictor of sales. In September, new listings rose 2%, and in October, sales increased by 4%.
Even as demand slows, sellers are maintaining more negotiating power and receiving more than asking price on average. The average seller received 94% of list in January, which grew to 101% by May. From May to October, the average seller received 101% of list price in every month. Inventory will almost certainly remain historically low for the rest of the year, and will likely remain low in 2024, which will favor sellers. |
|