The Peninsula real estate market is still moving. The luxury market is moving faster
In San Carlos, Belmont, Redwood City, Menlo Park, Palo Alto, and Los Altos, well-priced single-family homes are continuing to sell quickly—above asking price.
The condo and townhome market is operating by it’s own rules. Properties take longer to sell, are going closer to list price, and often see HOA loan contingencies. A poorly managed HOA can derail even the most button-ed up condo listing.
The luxury market is moving faster
The market above $4 million is its own thing right now.
We are seeing more buyers with meaningful liquidity from the AI economy—whether through IPO gains, secondary-share sales, tender offers, or growing equity wealth. And more of those buyers are coming in with cash.
That makes them less sensitive to mortgage-rate changes and more prepared to move quickly when the right home comes to market.
In Palo Alto, Menlo Park, and Los Altos, more than 70% of listed homes have been selling, and the median time on market has been roughly eight to nine days. About one-third of sales in those communities have been cash purchases.
In the past few weeks we have seen several listings accept offers above 1 million over list price — with as many as 8-14 offers in communities such as Los Altos, Palo Alto — and even Redwood City. (Contact me directly to hear about that one.)
If you own a well-located, well-positioned home in the luxury market, there is a very real opportunity right now.
A few things worth noticing
San Carlos and Palo Alto were particularly strong in September. San Carlos had less than one month of supply, while Palo Alto homes sold in a median of eight days and averaged 109% of list price.
Redwood City had more homes to choose from than the other communities, but that does not mean it was a slow market. Homes there still sold in a median of 12 days and at 104% of list price.
Menlo Park and Los Altos also remained very supply-constrained. In both communities, the right homes are still attracting buyers quickly.
Condos and townhomes are a different conversation, as I mentioned above. Buyers have more choices, more time, and more questions—especially about HOA finances, insurance, and future projects. Those sellers need to be even more thoughtful about pricing, preparation, and disclosures. (Pro tip: you should know what your HOA’s status is….)
The mortgage-rate question
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.40% in Freddie Mac’s most recent weekly survey, released October 8. As of October 13, daily lender pricing remained in the mid-7% range
That will matter to payment-sensitive buyers, particularly in the middle of the market. But it matters much less to cash buyers and buyers with substantial equity.
The takeaway is that sellers should be realistic.
The best homes are still selling. Homes that need work, have a challenging location, or are priced as though buyers have no alternatives will need a stronger strategy. As always, listing price is a marketing strategy.
Don’t just come to market.
Come to market prepared.
